Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Auto Run 2008

It is a transition phase for the globe not only in the field of economy or finance but at the same time in many other sectors as well. Domination of West has been challenged and replaced by the East. Collapse of North American structure has shaken the foundation of European Union as well. Even Asia Pacific and other parts of globe are not immune with this one of the worst financial situation of the century but the effect has been modulated and we didn’t see any big setbacks apart from market slow down here.

OK…I wont go in much details of these huge and complicated area of economics. Even I am not an eligible candidate to comment on it right now. Here I will focus on the Automotive Sector in this turmoil period primarily.
As mentioned this transition phase has also been seen in the world of wheels. In fact it was most obvious in this sector. 2008 didn’t come as a big surprise package for auto experts. Because whatever came from the quarter results and number, only thing was unexpected that it was worse than the expected.

Toyota has outsold GM in number game of vehicle sold in 2008. 77 years of North American domination has been ended by one of the smallest but hardest working country. As per the company released reports, GM has sold around 8.3 million vehicle in the year 2008 approx 0.6million less than Toyota. GM has seen the decline of around 11% of sales compare to last year after crude oil has risen to record high. Again it was not a surprise as observing previous few years numbers it was clear that its only a matter of time that when Toyota out thrown GM from No.1. GM still has something to breathe as it retained the crown at its home turf, which is the biggest market of automobiles in the world. But considering the performance and decline of the auto major it wont come as a surprise if it looses at its home market as well eventually.
But certainly there are some surprises stored for auto pundits. First time in history, after 70 years Toyota has registered a loss. This was not welcomed by Japanese but the Big 3 should take a lesson from this. Toyota has responded after the loss one year, whereas Big 3 are so lazy to take any aggressive step even after registering losses year after years.

Ask for more surprise?
Here comes the biggie. China was never or I will say very few times came as a surprise in a technical field especially in innovation and never heard in automotive sector.
This year NAIAS is an exception. BYD(Build Your Dreams), 2nd largest manufacturer of Li ion battery in the world came up with production version of their electric vehicle fleet which has not only surprised auto pundits but also send a clear warning message to all Auto makers including invincible Japanese and Germans.
Whatever they claim about their Electric Vehicle e6 is really like a dream wish. Lets just see what these Chinese people has done and come up with.

Specification of the Vehicle (e6)

Range: 250mile(400km)
Charging time: 1Hr
50%charge: 10min
80%charge: 15min
Seating capacity: 5 persons
Battery type: Fe
Top Speed: 160km/hr
0-100km: <8Sec
Emission: Zero.(For more or detail specification and the vehicle check www.byd.com)

Can you ask for more?
Even if it is half true, it will give volt, the most ambitious plan of GM a run for money.

Compare to Volt’s range of 40miles it has 250miles. Charging time of Volt will take 5-6 times more than what BYD claims. Also, seeing their pace and claim that vehicle will be launch within an year compare to estimated launch of Volt in 2011-2012, I don’t understand where GM stand a chance against this new innovation.

GM has always boasted its continuous investments in RnD. But for last so many years it is still waiting for such breakthrough innovations and ideas to come. Whereas, approx 20 year old companies are coming with such ideas, which will not only change the way we drive but it claims to become No.1 in coming 10-15years.
BYD is not only a threat for GM but also for Toyota and others at the same time. It may lead another transition in auto industry. From NA to Japan and now from Japan to China. ICE was lead by NA, so Hybrid was lead by Japan and now here comes China, started to claim the EV segment.

After the President Mr Obama has taken charge of White House, it would be his Herculean task to revive Auto industry of NA and reclaim the supremacy of this sector again. Already cash starved and cramp auto industry in NA will how long survive such blows, nobody knows.

After GM stepped back to acquire Chrysler, Fiat has now bought approx 30% of the stakes of this dying company. Even Fiat is not in a good health but its long awaited wish to come in NA has come true. It has got a nice platform to penetrate in NA market. Only concern remains, like Cerberus, Fiat don’t burn its hand in this deal. By mid of 2009 Fiat is expected to acquire more than 50% of Chrysler stake to take the ownership of the company. After Japanese, here comes Italian Stallion in NA. anything else GM management wish for. In flood you are getting rain. God bless GM.

As per COO of GM, it will run out of cash by 31 March after paying its due bills. Hopefully they have another slot of bridge loan pending which was promised my ex Bush administration. But this is not at all a permanent solution to revive a company. Its like feeding an starving elephant from house grocery. Whatever you do, you cant full its appetite. Just by giving the money of taxpayer to some incapable management is not a wise idea.

2008 has shown the reality of so many things. It has removed mask and shown the real picture and face of the otherwise glamorous market and industry. But it made us to think that it’s a high time to go for a reality check.

But again it’s a new year and it will be a new start. Only thing which should remain with us is hope. It’s a world of survival of the fittest. But being the fittest, needs lots of effort and practice. Lost at one front doesn’t mean end of the battle. There will be lots of challenges coming and continue to come till you say quit. But that is the best part of the market. So many came, so many will come. Ideas, companies, products, changes, setbacks, technologies, people, management…will keep coming one after another but…the show must go on.

Understanding Business

I don’t know how many times I have said it to others and more often to myself that I will do my own business. I want to build my own organization. Nothing new. So many have the same dream. So many pursue it too. But do I really understand its meaning or I just want to follow the crowd. Let me explore its true meaning just sitting alone and finding the true essence of it. After all its my business.


What is business?
Making profit…? Selling products…? Sustaining growth…? Eliminating competition…?

I am not an MBA kid. I don’t pose the bookish knowledge or definition of Business. But to start with first let me explore the basic or fundamental of it. It is not only what is business. It is why do we do business. What is the objective of doing it…pursuing it. The true nature of business…where does its spirit lie?

Is it money, which drives business? Then again, there are so many methods to own money.
Is it like, since I am not capable of doing others things, so business. Believe me no one would like this idea.
Is it buying and selling the products and creating the market for it fascinates me. That’s why I am doing business. This sounds like a complete sentence. But is it the only thing which fascinates me?


Allow me to go a bit further and deeper.
Business or trade is a basic and ancient human behavior. I believe it is one of the most noble characteristics developed within men. It has dramatically put human species miles ahead of other species. Initially before this trade or business concept human must be snatching or stealing the object from the possessor without giving anything in return. A typical animal behavior. What it would lead to? Not letting any motivation arise to generate idea or innovation or desire to produce something worthy. The kind of war between tribes or individual were the result of the same. Lack of business practice. Otherwise it would be a hand shaking process. Smooth and pleasant. Give me that, take equivalent this in return. Both happy, both satisfied.
This process of exchange made people more productive, innovative and motivated. It lead to believe individual that if they produce something worthy, they can earn their most desired luxury on return. They can exchange their product with others who has something which can be traded in return.

It made the society. It nurtured the civilization. It has organized every single thing. Actually it has chanellized the whole available energy and capabilities in a proper way. The person who was capable to produce became the leader of the society. The one who refused or unable to produce became the slave. Serve your masters and earn your salary. Again this service term is generated form the same business practice.

From here I can derive my definition of business. It’s a process of exchange or trade to get the desired object in return of what I can offer to other who find it worthy. It’s a give and take process.

Money, which is just an invention in the field of business or method for exchange, drastically made the whole process of business so flexible and versatile. It is just a byproduct of business.
It can be imagined as the center of the whole business process. All different business process is assumed at the peripheral of the circle and money is at the center. If you want to trade of two product, just come to the center from first product and move to the other product from here. It has created a well defined method and path. In a nutshell, Money is the Unified Theory for the business process and practice.

So here comes my understanding or the steps of the business.
Ø Find or develop the capability to build
Ø Arrange resources to build or create it.
Ø List your desired product or wish
Ø Get the person interested in your product.
Ø Trade it directly for your desired product or indirectly, i.e. through the money exchange process.

Here most of the time we consider the step of exchanging as a complete business, which is incomplete statement according to me. That is just a part of business, not a complete picture.
Manufacturing the product and at the last step getting the desired product, completes the circle of business.
Now again each step has and require different set of skills set and capabilities, like from idea to product, from product to market and from market to customer. Most of the time one is not capable of doing all things individually. One may be good in one part but may not carry the skill set require for the other area of business. Here again money comes as a solution for it, which allow you to buy the support require to run the complete process.

Now I believe I have a complete 360 degree view of the business process. From desiring to achieving in a manner which is beneficial for all the persons involved in the loop.
Now after reviewing all previous definitions make sense to me and all of them are falling at right places.
Ø Making money: Refers appropriate exchange value for my product which will in return get me the desired product eventually.
Ø Selling product: So that I can exchange it for my wish list.
Ø Sustaining growth: So that I can continue to get my desired product. Again note here that men desires are endless.
Ø Eliminating competitors: It looks like the dark side of the business from outside. But look deeper, it eliminates the monopoly of a single person and at the same time makes the market and create an environment, where products are finer day by day. Improve or vacant that place for a better and more eligible manufacturer or businessman. It will lead to innovation and growth for the whole human race.

Business process reflects the true capability of a human, which is more intellectually than physically. The motion in the society is the result of its practice. Without it stagnation of growth is guaranteed. It creates a parameter for a society as per its ability to create. Want to see a happy society, check its business practices.

This ancient practice has come a long way and there are lots of changes and modifications occur in this area which has made this process versatile and relevant to current culture. But the real essence is still intact….getting by giving.

Bedtime Thinking

Sometime I wonder am I really mature enough to define the path and rules of my life… am I experienced enough to predict the future (up to some extent)… have I learned enough to distinguish between good or bad… am I strong enough to face any challenge?

What comes in mind when you stay alone…?
Memories or questions… mostly.
Rarely comes the solutions.

I always challenged myself…
Many time.
Pushed the limit to test my stamina, power and courage….loved to go extra miles.
I lived, I loved, I hated, I cried, I laughed….

I am not an ambitious guy…may be don’t like seeing dreams… or can say my way of seeing dreams is different.
I prefer to see my dream in my goal than to see my goal in my dream.
Sometime I find myself getting involved in something other that I forget my own way of living….when gets a slap then only wakes up from the sleep.

Pain.
Can you see it?
It’s a feeling…it may rest in smile too or in a frustrated laugh.
But a good part of pain is…it shows your limit…define your limitations…and also awakens you from the sleep.

I loved pain (…afterwards).
I know it won’t last…. It has to be finished. But what will remain is the mark and memory…and most important its lessons. Lessons that I would like to treasure through my life. Lessons that will make my action in future more sharp and accurate.
Its fun to learn. Its my only earning in my life.

What can give you pain…? Trust on others.
What eases your pain…? Trust on yourself.
I loved others.
That fortunate person will love you for sure…but doesn’t necessarily will love you the way you love…doesn’t reciprocate your feeling the way you do…may not respond according to your choice.
Result…
heart break? Pain?
Now you start thinking and searching inside yourself…find that one is not wrong…even you are not wrong… then what went wrong?
This is a world of individuals…you tried to see their lives from your eyes…Wrong. You don’t have any right.
Suddenly you realize Expectations…from where it came?
I was not a person who expects from anyone…how did this happen?
Change?
Yes.
But why?
Did you find your previous path was wrong? If so…then again why do you want to go back to that path? May be for the one I decided to change or change happened had realized you this. I know I am wrong to decide to go back…but I can’t stay on the same path…..
I m egoist.